Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033769 0.038450 0.043569 0.049586 0.056473 0.064113 0.073243
2025-02-02 0.027067 0.033578 0.041351 0.051335 0.063848 0.079051 0.098985
2025-02-09 0.023494 0.030876 0.040229 0.052985 0.069999 0.092000 0.122761
2025-02-16 0.020278 0.027924 0.038085 0.052640 0.073063 0.100860 0.141838
2025-02-23 0.018044 0.025868 0.036708 0.052910 0.076673 0.110493 0.162725
2025-03-02 0.015980 0.023740 0.034891 0.052199 0.078604 0.117715 0.180689
2025-03-09 0.014749 0.022642 0.034375 0.053233 0.083072 0.128944 0.205733
2025-03-16 0.013332 0.021084 0.032968 0.052687 0.084947 0.136256 0.225272
2025-03-23 0.012611 0.020519 0.033003 0.054360 0.090437 0.149730 0.256212
2025-03-30 0.011290 0.018844 0.031090 0.052623 0.090067 0.153461 0.270933
2025-04-06 0.010330 0.017667 0.029866 0.051888 0.091262 0.159852 0.290854
2025-04-13 0.009270 0.016216 0.028038 0.049907 0.090036 0.161825 0.302868
2025-04-20 0.008930 0.016003 0.028350 0.051800 0.096048 0.177515 0.342552
2025-04-27 0.008596 0.015772 0.028608 0.053623 0.102129 0.193986 0.385754
2025-05-04 0.008275 0.015530 0.028815 0.055351 0.108174 0.210962 0.431876
2025-05-11 0.007708 0.014770 0.027984 0.054990 0.110072 0.219993 0.462719
2025-05-18 0.007275 0.014225 0.027510 0.055273 0.113268 0.231903 0.500944
2025-05-25 0.006763 0.013479 0.026575 0.054529 0.114256 0.239335 0.530262
2025-06-01 0.006494 0.013196 0.026531 0.055610 0.119182 0.255530 0.580950
2025-06-08 0.006077 0.012573 0.025743 0.055039 0.120472 0.263977 0.614853
2025-06-15 0.005918 0.012472 0.026021 0.056789 0.127051 0.284756 0.680165
2025-06-22 0.005444 0.011661 0.024736 0.054972 0.125379 0.286679 0.700195
2025-06-29 0.005101 0.011106 0.023952 0.054203 0.126040 0.294029 0.734432